Micron Put Up the Perfect Three-Year Run
Micron's last six prints graded WEAK, then STABLE, then STRONG four times. The grades only moved one way, then held the top. That is the run.
It is also an AI-cycle story. The washout was a memory glut. The STRONG years are what happens when that same factory is asked for HBM and high-bandwidth DRAM faster than it can ship. Execution got them through the trough. Crazy demand is what the later prints are answering.
863 grades prints with a proprietary engine verdict — WEAK, STABLE, or STRONG. We track it yearly on the 10-K and quarterly on the 10-Q. The price on a print is the filing-date close, not the quarter-end close. Quarter-end is a calendar date. Filing day is when the statements hit and the market actually reads them.
From the WEAK 10-K close ($64.59, 6 October 2023) to the FQ3 10-Q close ($1,213.56, 25 June 2026) is 18.8x. From the first STABLE close ($94.27) that same print is 12.9x. The Q3 tape later gave some back — $940.76 on 18 August 2026, still about 10x the STABLE filing. The filing-day line on FQ3 stays $1,213.56.
This is the grade history and the market's reaction to each print. Not a recommendation. No price target.
The grade timeline
| Chapter | Grade | Period end | Filed | Filing-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | WEAK | 2023-08-31 | 2023-10-06 | $64.59 |
| FY2024 | STABLE | 2024-08-29 | 2024-10-04 | $94.27 |
| FY2025 | STRONG | 2025-08-28 | 2025-10-03 | $187.83 |
| FQ1 FY2026 | STRONG | 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-18 | $248.55 |
| FQ2 FY2026 | STRONG | 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-19 | $444.27 |
| FQ3 FY2026 | STRONG | 2026-05-28 | 2026-06-25 | $1,213.56 |
Current close, 18 August 2026: $940.76.
FY2023 — WEAK
The washout. Revenue collapsed. Gross margin went negative — they were losing money at the product line, before operating expenses. Inventory piled up to more than half of sales and had to be written down. Cash from operations was barely positive. The factory was still spending against a year that had already broken.
That is a WEAK print. Filing-day close: $64.59.
FY2024 — STABLE
The repair year. Sales came back. Gross profit turned positive again. Operating income crossed zero for the first time in the sequence. Inventory started to drain. CapEx came down with the pile.
A STABLE year is a company that stopped bleeding, not one that had already won the next cycle. Filing-day close: $94.27. From here, FQ3 is 12.9x. Current is about 10x.
FY2025 — STRONG
The year demand showed up as mix, not just units. Revenue jumped again. Gross margin went from the low twenties to about 40%. Operating income went from a thin profit to $9.8 billion. Cash from operations more than doubled, to $17.5 billion, and funded a capex re-ramp.
The 10-K is explicit about why the margin moved: higher average selling prices and a larger mix of higher-margin products, including HBM. That is the AI bid hitting a memory name that had already cleaned up the trough. Execution got the P&L ready. The cycle is what filled it.
Filing-day close: $187.83.
The three STRONG quarters
FQ1 through FQ3 FY2026 each graded STRONG. The quarterly prints did not cool after the annual flip. Sales kept doubling-plus. The operating line ran even harder than the sales line. Cash stayed with it.
That is not a company squeezing a leftover recovery. That is a factory sold out into an AI build. Receivables built in Q3 — bookings ran ahead of collections — which is the demand print showing up as a collection lag, not as a miss. The filing-day tape went $249 to $444 to $1,214 across those three 10-Qs.
The tape later gave some of the Q3 print back. $940.76 on 18 August does not rewrite the filing-day line, and it does not rewrite the grade.
The run
WEAK to STABLE to STRONG, then three more STRONG quarters. A memory name walked out of a glut, into an AI cycle, without a down grade in between. Gross margin from negative to about 40%. Operating income from a multi-billion-dollar loss to a multi-billion-dollar profit. Inventory from a millstone to a working line.
The market's reaction, measured the same way each time — the close on the day the statements hit — is the 18.8x from the WEAK filing and the 12.9x from the STABLE filing. After Q3 the tape gave some back, and about 10x from STABLE is what is left on 18 August.
A cycle name can put up a sequence like this and still have a next print that does not. The grades are the history of the statements. They are not a view on the next close.
Not a recommendation. No price target. The FY2026 10-K is the next chapter.
Sources
- Micron Technology, Inc., Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended August 31, 2023 (filed October 6, 2023).
- Micron Technology, Inc., Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended August 29, 2024 (filed October 4, 2024).
- Micron Technology, Inc., Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended August 28, 2025 (filed October 3, 2025).
- Micron Technology, Inc., Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended November 27, 2025 (filed December 18, 2025).
- Micron Technology, Inc., Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended February 26, 2026 (filed March 19, 2026).
- Micron Technology, Inc., Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended May 28, 2026 (filed June 25, 2026).
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Published 18 Aug 2026 and not revised since. Informational only — not investment advice or a recommendation. Corrections: research@863labs.com.